TTF to hold steady while Asian prices face bearish pressure on weak demand

Market & Trading Calls

European TTF price outlook: Neutral as the rise in temperatures in most of the continent and improved renewable generation are expected to offset declines in net pipeline flows due to the start of the spring maintenance period in Norway. Ongoing maintenance at key European terminals will likely limit the pace of LNG imports in the next few days.

Asian LNG price outlook: Slightly bearish as mild weather, high inventories, and weak demand—particularly from China and Thailand—offset supply disruptions from Ichthys and Wheatstone, with Bintulu’s recovery easing upward pressure.

Asian LNG – TTF spread: Slightly widening as the TTF is expected to remain stable, and Asian LNG prices are projected to weaken slightly in the coming days. As of 23 April, Asian LNG premium over TTF widened by $0.12/MMBtu week-on-week, trading at a $0.23/MMBtu premium.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Neutral as heating demand drops below 15 Bcf/d and temperatures remain cool enough to ward off the start of the cooling season in most of the US.

Key natural gas and LNG prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, NYMEX, Spark Commodities. Brent-indexed price represents 12% slope of 90-day moving average of Brent contract. Netforward USGC to NWE calculation is 115% Henry Hub contract plus shipping and regasification costs into Gate (Spark Commodities).

Asian LNG-TTF spread ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, Kpler Insight

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Europe: TTF to remain stable as reduced pipeline supply is offset by sluggish domestic demand

TTF front-month prices declined compared to last week, settling at $11.42/MMBtu on 23 April — a 2.8% ($0.32 /MMBtu) decrease from 16 April. Prices remained stable during the first half of the week, with limited trading activity in most of Europe due to the Easter break. On Tuesday, prices declined by 3%, likely due to upward temperature revisions for the week ahead, and despite w/w decreases in net pipeline flows into the continent. The summer-winter contango remained stable, albeit weak, around the -$0.5/MMBtu mark when comparing the June and December 2025 contracts. The market continues to await the EU Commission’s roadmap aiming to phase out Russian gas. So far, the news about the potential inclusion of a ban on spot buying of Russian LNG has not yet impacted European prices

Looking ahead, Kpler Insight expects front-month TTF to remain rangebound as the rise in temperatures in most of the continent, along with improved renewable generation, and slightly higher LNG imports are expected to offset declines in net pipeline flows due to the start of the spring maintenance period in Norway.

Diving into fundamentals last week, net pipeline flows into the EU decreased by 5% w/w due to declines in Azeri, Algerian, and Libyan flows and reduced output from the Turkstream pipeline. These outweighed strong gas exports from Norway and the UK to the EU. Net EU pipeline imports remain 0.41 bcm lower y/y following the halt of Russian gas supply via Ukraine, but also driven by reduced y/y exports from Algeria, particularly to Spain.

Going forward, we expect net pipeline flows to decline as planned works start at the Karsto facility and the Ormen Lange field in Norway.

EU-27 weekly net pipeline gas imports (bcm), y/y comparison

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 09/04 and 16/04/2025.

European LNG imports increased to 5.52 mcm last week (+6% w/w), driven by higher imports in the Mediterranean and the Baltic region, particularly in Croatia and Poland, respectively.  Arbs for Western Africa supply remain open to Asia, and US LNG supply has just started to favour deliveries via the Panama Canal. Next week, we expect a slight increase in LNG imports, limited by ongoing maintenance in some European regasification terminals.

On the LNG supply, US LNG exports continued to reach strong levels, with Plaquemines and Corpus Christi III gradually ramping up.

EU-27 weekly LNG imports (mcm)

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 09/04 and 16/04/2025. NWE=FR, BEL, NL,GER. Iberia=ESP, POR. Med=ITA, HVR, GRE. Baltics/CEE=FI, LT, POL. Others=SWE, MT. Mcm measured with gas at -160’C.

Gas consumption from local distribution networks across 15 EU countries fell by 20.9% w/w to 1.54 bcm, trending lower in line with the seasonal shift to spring. Week-on-week slight increases in parts of NW Europe were more than offset by heavy weekly losses in Central & Southern Europe. We expect LDZ demand to continue falling next week as temperatures across the continent are forecast to increase in the coming days.

EU-15 weekly consumption in the local distribution (res/com) sector (bcm)

Source: ENTSOG, ENAGAS, Eurstream, AGCM, Kpler Insight. The EU-15 perimeter includes AT, BE, CZE, FR, HU, GRE, ITA, NL, LUX, POL, POR, ROM, SLVN, SLVK, and SPA.

Average forecast temperatures for selected European countries (°C)

Source: Kpler Power. As of 24 April 00:00 UTC.

On the power side, EU-27 gas-fired generation decreased by 13% w/w to an estimated 4.94 TWh, driven by an overall week-on-week increase in solar and nuclear generation and a slight decline in power demand at the EU level. Next week, we anticipate gas-fired generation to decrease due to the gradual improvement expected in renewable generation and an overall increase in temperatures.

EU-27 weekly gas-fired generation (TWh)

Source: Kpler Power, Kpler Insight

Regarding EU-27 gas storage, the injection season is now well underway, with cumulative net injections as of 22 April reaching 2024 levels, which are well above the trend observed in 2023. Net injections have been favoured by weak domestic demand and robust pipeline and LNG supply, particularly in NW Europe. Higher hub prices in Italy relative to TTF and incentives handed out during the last auctions have also spurred injections in the Mediterranean country. As of 22 April, EU gas stocks are 37.53 % full (1.43% up w/w). Next week, we expect a slight slowdown in net injections driven by lower pipeline supply into the EU from Norway and planned maintenance scheduled to occur in some EU regasification terminals.

EU-27 cumulative net injections since 1 April by year  (TWh)

Source: GIE, Kpler Insight. Latest date as of 22/04/25.

Looking for the full weekly report?
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Access the complete report - available each week in Insight - featuring:

• Market & Trading Calls
• Europe: TTF to remain stable as reduced pipeline supply is offset by sluggish domestic demand
• ‍Asia: Slight Bearish Tilt as Supply Recovers Amid Ample Stocks and Weak Demand
• US: Warming weather and tariffs risk drag Henry Hub to $3.00/MMBtu
• LNG Supply: Unplanned outages rumble on, reducing April LNG export forecast by 0.8 mt to 34.6 mt

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