US tariffs and mild temperatures to drive down TTF and Asian LNG prices

Market & Trading Calls

European TTF price outlook: Bearish as the market anticipates lower gas demand following the announcement of US tariffs on 2 April. Strong LNG send-out and mild spring temperatures continue to reduce the call on inventory withdrawals. Upside risks remain if ongoing maintenance at Norway’s Nyhamna and Kollsness facilities is extended.

Asian LNG price outlook: Bearish tracking bearish European TTF benchmarks, as mild temperatures and above-average inventories across Northeast Asia continue to suppress regional demand. However, the outlook is not without risks as the market eyes recent US imposed tariffs and potential Indonesian LNG supply disruptions.

Asian LNG – TTF spread: Stable as both TTF and Asian LNG prices are projected to weaken in the coming days. As of 2 April, Asian LNG regained its premium over TTF, trading at a $0.12/MMBtu premium.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Stable as downward pressure from mild April weather forecasts counteract more bullish sentiment spawned from flat production, high LNG feed gas demand, and geopolitical risk from recent tariff implementation.  

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Europe: TTF to decline on newly announced US tariffs and lower demand

TTF front-month prices ended last week largely flat, settling at $13.07/MMBtu on 2 April — up 1.1% ($0.14/MMBtu) from 26 March. The market softened through 31 March, weighed by strong renewable power output, elevated LNG send-out, warmer-than-average temperatures, and higher net pipeline imports. The European Council’s 28 March proposal to provide additional flexibility with regards to storage filling targets added further downward pressure and contributed to a narrowing of the seasonal spread just as the restocking season commenced. A brief uptick in prices on 1 April was likely driven by downward revisions to near-term temperature forecasts. However, this gain proved short-lived. On 2 April, the US formally announced new tariffs on select EU goods, prompting a decline in TTF the following day.

Looking ahead, Kpler Insight expects front-month TTF to edge lower. The tariff move is bearish for short-term gas pricing, primarily due to expected industrial demand destruction in Europe and potential exchange rate effects — specifically, euro appreciation—reducing the dollar-denominated cost of gas. That said, we anticipate cautious trading in the near term as participants await clarity on US-EU negotiations and potential countermeasures from the European Commission.

LNG inflows are robust, renewable generation is expected to stay elevated, and rising temperatures later this week are likely to further suppress residential and commercial gas demand. That said, upside risks persist should maintenance at Norway’s Nyhamna and Kollsnes gas processing facilities be extended. Notably, the latter is expected to take around 81 Sm³ offline between 3–4 April due to an unexpected failure in its external power supply. Gassco has since confirmed that power has been restored.

Diving into fundamentals last week. Net pipeline flows into the EU increased by 2.8% w/w on the back of higher flows from Norway and the UK. Despite the weekly increase, net EU pipeline imports remain 0.30 cm lower y/ following the halt of Russian gas supply via Ukraine.  

EU-27 weekly net pipeline gas imports (bcm), y/y comparison

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 19 and 26 March 2025.

On the LNG side, despite a minor hiccup at Corpus Christi (one-day pipeline repair) and Sabine Pass (marine fog), US exports remained robust, with 2.23 mt forecasted for this week.

European LNG imports fell to 6.02 mcm last week (-15% week-on-week), with notable decreases in Turkey, Iberia and the Baltics/CEE enabling more supply for northwest Europe.

EU-27 weekly LNG imports (mcm)

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 19 and 26 March 2025. NWE=FR, BEL, NL,GER. Iberia=ESP, POR. Med=ITA, HVR, GRE. Baltics/CEE=FI, LT, POL. Others=SWE, MT. Mcm measured with gas at -160’C.

Gas consumption from local distribution networks across 15 EU countries fell by 9.1% w/w to 2.34 bcm, confirming the seasonal shift to spring. The decline was driven by above-average temperatures across Southern and Eastern Europe.

Looking ahead, local distribution demand is expected to fall further, as a short-lived temperature dip is forecast to be followed by warmer-than-average weather across Northwestern Europe.

EU-15 weekly consumption in the local distribution (res/com) sector (bcm)

Source: ENTSOG, ENAGAS, Eurstream, AGCM, Kpler Insight. The EU-15 perimeter includes AT, BE, CZE, FR, HU, GRE, ITA, NL, LUX, POL, POR, ROM, SLVN, SLVK, and SPA.

Average forecast temperatures for selected European countries (°C)

Source: Kpler Power. As of 03 April 00:00 UTC.

On the power side, EU-27 gas-fired generation declined by 13% week-on-week to an estimated 4.56 TWh driven by strong solar output and above-average temperatures.

EU-27 weekly gas-fired generation (TWh)

Source: Kpler Power, Kpler Insight

As of 1 April, EU-27 underground storage facilities were 34.1% full—an increase of 0.39% since 26 March. The uptick marks the official start of the injection season and is supported by falling domestic demand, healthy LNG availability, and a narrowing seasonal spread, which have encouraged net injections in recent days.

EU-27 daily underground storage net withdrawals since 1 November (bcm)

Source: GIE, Kpler Insight. Latest date as of 01/04/25.

Want the complete report?

The full report is available within Insight and contains:

• Market & Trading Calls
• Asian LNG prices ease on lower TTF, warm weather, and high inventories, though Indonesian supply risks remain
• Europe: TTF to decline on newly announced US tariffs and lower demand
• US: Henry Hub to remain above $4.00/MMBtu due to flat supply and tariff risks
• LNG Supply: LNG Canada begins cooldown, GTA nears first full load

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