Stable TTF forecasted while Asian LNG prices remain under pressure amidst a temporary tariff pause

Key natural gas and LNG prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, NYMEX, Spark Commodities. Brent-indexed price represents 12% slope of 90-day moving average of Brent contract. Netforward USGC to NWE calculation is 115% Henry Hub contract plus shipping and regasification costs into Gate (Spark Commodities).

Asian LNG-TTF spread ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, Kpler Insight

Europe: TTF to hold steady as the market assesses the implications of the 90-day tariff pause

TTF front-month prices declined last week, settling at $10.89/MMBtu on 9 April — down 16.6% ($2.17/MMBtu) from 2 April. The drop was primarily driven by the US reciprocal tariffs announcement, which triggered a negative economic sentiment and raised concerns over weaker industrial demand in Europe—particularly from gas-intensive sectors such as chemicals and machinery, which represent a significant share of EU exports to the US.  Additional downward pressure came from the fourth revision to the EU Council’s gas storage regulation proposal, which introduces greater flexibility, allowing for deviations of up to 10% from the 90% target, with additional allowances for countries with derogations. However, the proposal still awaits discussion and vote in the European Parliament.

Looking ahead, Kpler Insight expects front-month TTF to remain stable. The 9 April announcement pausing the US-led reciprocal tariffs for 90 days offers short-term bullish support, driven by improved economic sentiment. However, any upside remains limited. The US is still implementing a flat 10% tariff during the pause and retained full reciprocal tariffs on China. We expect volatility to remain high into next week as the market corrects expectations on trade dynamics.

That said, supply fundamentals remain strong. LNG imports into Europe are strong, and no major maintenance events are planned at Norwegian processing facilities. On the demand side, temperatures are forecast to stay above seasonal averages through the first half of the next week weighing on residential and commercial consumption. Meanwhile, robust renewable generation is expected to cap gas-for-power demand.

Diving into fundamentals last week, net pipeline flows into the EU increased by 1.5% w/w on the back of higher Algerian and Azeri flows. Despite the weekly increase, net EU pipeline imports remain 0.26 bcm lower y/y following the halt of Russian gas supply via Ukraine.  

EU-27 weekly net pipeline gas imports (bcm), y/y comparison

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 03/04/24 and 02/04/25.

Despite a decline in US LNG exports last week due to reduced feedgas flows across several terminals, volumes are expected to rebound this week supported by record feedgas levels. US Exports are forecast to reach close to 2 mt.

European LNG imports increased to 6.16 mcm last week (-3% w/w), driven by NWE and the UK. Looking ahead LNG imports into Italy could decline as regasification capacity at the Adriatic LNG terminal is set to be curtailed by at least 4.3 mcm/d between 13–16 April due to unplanned maintenance.

EU-27 weekly LNG imports (mcm)

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 26/03 and 02/04/2025. NWE=FR, BEL, NL,GER. Iberia=ESP, POR. Med=ITA, HVR, GRE. Baltics/CEE=FI, LT, POL. Others=SWE, MT. Mcm measured with gas at -160’C.

Gas consumption from local distribution networks across 15 EU countries fell by 11.4% w/w to 2.08 bcm, trending lower in line with the seasonal shift to spring. Weekly consumption now sits slightly below levels recorded over the past two years, with further downside expected as temperatures are forecast to remain above seasonal norms through the first half of the next week.

EU-15 weekly consumption in the local distribution (res/com) sector (bcm)

Source: ENTSOG, ENAGAS, Eurstream, AGCM, Kpler Insight. The EU-15 perimeter includes AT, BE, CZE, FR, HU, GRE, ITA, NL, LUX, POL, POR, ROM, SLVN, SLVK, and SPA.

Average forecast temperatures for selected European countries (°C)

Source: Kpler Power. As of 10 April 00:00 UTC.

On the power side, EU-27 gas-fired generation declined by 13% w/w to an estimated 3.97 TWh driven by declining power demand and strong solar output. Similar to local distribution demand, gas-for-power consumption is now trending below levels seen in 2023 and 2024.

EU-27 weekly gas-fired generation (TWh)

Source: Kpler Power, Kpler Insight

Storage activity in the EU-27 bloc has begun to pick up, with underground facilities reaching 34.97% full as of 8 April—up 0.69% points since 1 April. Injections are gaining pace as front-month spreads offer slight incentives to store. In Italy, storage operator Stogit held successful auctions on 7 and 8 April, though the inclusion of a storage bonus makes it difficult to assess how strong demand would have been under normal market conditions.

At the policy level, the fourth revision to EU Council’s gas storage regulation proposal introduced additional flexibility, allowing deviations of up to 10%, with further allowances for countries holding derogations. If passed, the proposal could ease pressure on the filling trajectory, though it still awaits approval from the European Parliament.

Daily EU underground gas storage change since 1 January 2025 (bcm)

Source: GIE, Kpler Insight. Latest date as of 01/04/25.

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Want the complete report?

The full report is available within Insight and contains:

• Market & Trading Calls
• Europe: TTF to hold steady as the market assesses the implications of the 90-day tariff pause
• Asia: Asian LNG Prices Expected to Dip Further as Trade War Fears Delay Restocking, Summer Demand Signals Await Clarity
• US: Henry Hub to return average near $4.00/MMBtu on tariff reversal and flat production
• LNG Supply: Qatar output remains strong, Soyo restarts, US and Malaysia hold steady while Australian maintenance looms

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