Our view on EDF’s nuclear generation forecasts

A conservative outlook or a missed opportunity? Here’s why we think EDF’s forecasts could have been more ambitious

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Yesterday, EDF announced its first estimates for yearly nuclear generation in France. From 2025 to 2027 the range for nuclear generation in France is now estimated at between 350 and 370 TWh.While the updated projections are more ambitious than earlier estimates, they remain below historical averages. Here is why we believe the production is conservative:

• Power demand: French power demand growth is not increasing as expected, but our forecast sees a slight increase in the next year returning to 2023 levels, with an increase of 20-30 TWh. Nearly all of this demand will be mostly absorbed by nuclear power, which continues to dominate the French energy mix at ~70%.
  
• Neighbour dependency: French nuclear remains consistently competitive, clearing the market at lower prices than coal and gas. For at least the next two years, energy-intensive countries like Germany will continue relying on French imports.
  
• Flamanville 3 Effect: The new reactor is online—Flamanville 3 was connected to the grid in December 2024 and has now started delivering its first megawatts.
  
• Start 2025 Program: Since 2019, EDF has been implementing this program to enhance reactor shutdown performance and boost production. To date, 80% of planned solutions have been deployed, delivering tangible results. Outage durations have improved significantly, with sites like Paluel setting records. Key milestones, such as the reactor unloading starting at shutdown, were achieved in 70%+ of cases, a sharp rise from 10% in 2021 and 40% in 2022. Additionally, outage extensions have dropped by one-third since 2022, reflecting strong operational progress.

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Kpler forecasts10% lower2026 and 2027

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Kpler’s central forecast is slightly above EDF’s predictions:

EDF’s projections for 2025 are approximately 10% lower than our central forecast, whereas the gap narrows in 2026 and 2027 falling just a few TWh short of their own high-range estimates. The decision to hold back from targeting pre-COVID output levels suggests a conservative outlook, despite improving fleet conditions. With stronger operational performance in 2024, EDF had room to be more ambitious in its targets.