Natural Gas and LNG Weekly: TTF to edge higher to secure Atlantic LNG supply amid maintenance and disruptions in the Pacific Basin.

Market & Trading Calls

European TTF price outlook: Slightly bullish as the bearish impact of average renewable generation and warmer temperatures on EU gas demand will be more than offset by Europe’s need to continue attracting most uncommitted LNG supply from the Atlantic Basin.

Asian LNG price outlook: Slightly bearish next week, as weak restocking and tariff-driven macro concerns drive a 0.4 mt Asian demand downgrade, with buyers remaining cautious—while potential supply issues help limit further downside.

Asian LNG – TTF spread:  Narrow as the TTF is expected to increase, and Asian LNG prices are projected to weaken slightly in the coming days. As of 16 April, Asian LNG premium over TTF narrowed by $1.68/MMBtu week-on-week, trading at a $1.79/MMBtu premium.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Bearish as aggressive and unpredictable tariff policy coupled with upcoming warmer weather weigh heavily on front-month prices.

LNG Supply: Maintenance and unplanned outages in the Pacific basin to weigh on near-term supply

Global LNG exports came in at 8.67 mt last week, up from 8.50 mt the week prior and the highest level in five weeks as US LNG exports hit a new weekly record of 2.51 mt or 29% of total supply. Kpler Insight expects global LNG exports could slip this week amid maintenance in the Middle East and unplanned outages in Australia, Malaysia and Brunei. Algeria’s Bethioua is also witnessing lower exports.

Global LNG exports (mt, 10-day moving average)

Source: Kpler

After skipping regular maintenance in late February, LNG exports out of Qatar’s 77 mtpa Ras Laffan facility are slowing, indicating that maintenance could now be taking place at the plant. The reduction in supply comes at a time when neighbouring Oman are taking planned maintenance at the 11.4 mtpa Qalhat facility. The 3.8 mtpa train 3 came offline for maintenance on 15 April and it is unclear how long the maintenance is set to last.

Qatar LNG exports (mt, 10-day moving average)

Source: Kpler

Next week, Norway’s 4.2 mtpa Hammerfest plant will be taken offline on 22 April until 19 July for extensive maintenance, reducing LNG availability for Europe.

In unplanned issues, Australia’s 8.9 mtpa Ichthys has suffered with a faulty heat exchanger onboard its offshore floating production storage and offloading unit that has curbed LNG output since late March. Kpler Insight has yet to witness a noticeable reduction in exports (see chart). Maintenance to resolve the issue is scheduled for early May and may temporarily lower utilization further, offtakers said.

Australia’s Ichthys LNG exports (mt, 10-day moving average)

Source: Kpler

Malaysia’s 29.3 mtpa Bintulu and Algeria’s 20.8 mtpa Bethioua have witnessed a noticeable decline in exports (see charts below), while the 7.2 mtpa Brunei LNG plant also suffered an unplanned outage on 11 April which has yet to affect LNG exports. Market participants say the issue at Bintulu could be the result of equipment issues that may be affecting at least one liquefaction train.

Malaysia’s Bintulu LNG exports (mt, 10-day moving average)

Source: Kpler

Algeria’s Bethioua LNG exports (mt, 10-day moving average)

Source: Kpler

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Want the complete report?

The full report is available within Insight and contains:

• Market & Trading Calls
• Europe: TTF to rise slightly to remain competitive against Asian LNG
• Asia: Asian LNG Prices Stable-to-Bearish as Tariff Fallout Weighs on Demand; Supply Disruptions Limit Downside
• US: Bearish fundamentals and recession fears to keep Henry Hub firmly below $3.50/MMBtu
• LNG Supply: Maintenance and unplanned outages in the Pacific basin to weigh on near-term supply

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