Natural gas benchmark price outlook

Market & Trading calls

European TTF price outlook: Stable, driven by higher-than-average temperatures and a partial recovery of wind generation during the first half of the week. Bullish demand fundamentals are expected to take over from 24 March onwards as temperatures decline across NW Europe. This will be balanced by a gradual increase in pipeline supply and strong LNG imports.

Asian LNG price outlook: Stable, supported by steady European TTF levels, mild weather forecasts across Northeast Asia, and ample Pacific supply. These bearish fundamentals continue to weigh on upside potential, even as restocking demand from South Korea and incremental buying interest in South and Southeast Asia begin to emerge.

Asian LNG – TTF spread: Stable as both TTF and Asian LNG prices are projected to follow a steady trend. As of 20 March, European TTF maintains a $0.09/MMBtu premium over Asian LNG, with the inter-basin spread narrowing by $0.29/MMBtu last week, reflecting stronger week-on-week gains in TTF prices relative to Asian LNG.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Stable as cooler near-term weather and pipeline maintenance lend upward support to prices. However, as weather warms towards the end of the month and the injection season beings in earnest, Henry Hub is likely to decrease.

‍Key natural gas and LNG prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, NYMEX, Spark Commodities. Brent-indexed price represents 12% slope of 90-day moving average of Brent contract. Netforward USGC to NWE calculation is 115% Henry Hub contract plus shipping and regasification costs into Gate (Spark Commodities).

Asian LNG-TTF spread ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, Kpler Insight

Global LNG front-month arbs

Source: Spark Commodities, incorporating ICE-listed Spark Freight and Spark Cargo products. For a full M+12 forward curve and netback cost breakdown, contact Spark at info@sparkcommodities.com.

Europe: TTF to hold steady after rebound on market skepticism over Russia-Ukraine ceasefire

European TTF front-month prices rose last week, closing at $13.84/MMBtu on 19 March, up $0.37/MMBtu (+2.7%) from 12 March. Prices held steady before the weekend but declined on Monday following reports that the U.S. and Russian presidents would discuss a temporary ceasefire—an agreement Ukraine had already accepted the previous week. On Tuesday, Russia agreed to a 30-day halt on strikes targeting energy infrastructure but stopped short of a full ceasefire. Despite this, drone attacks were reported in Kyiv shortly after the call. Prices have since rebounded, likely reflecting market skepticism over a near-term resolution to the conflict that could restore Russian gas supply via Ukraine. Additional price support could come from recent weather forecasts pointing to lower-than-average temperatures in April and the beginning of May, which could slow down net injections into storage facilities during the period.

The seasonal (winter 202-26—summer 2025) price spread closed at $-0.54/MMBtu, widening by -$0.10/MMBtu since last week.

TTF summer and winter prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: Argus

Kpler Insight expects TTF front-month prices to remain range-bound next week. Bearish demand fundamentals will dominate the first half of the week, driven by warmer-than-average temperatures and improved wind generation. However, gas demand is set to rise later in the week as temperatures fall and renewable output weakens across parts of the continent.

Adding to price support, Europe must maintain netbacks at a premium to Asia to secure LNG flows, particularly from regions with tight inter-basin arbitrage, such as West Africa.

Expanding on fundamentals, Norwegian gas flows to the EU declined over the past week, primarily due to unplanned outages at the Ormen Lange, Åsgard, and Aasta Hansteen fields. Additionally, reduced TurkStream flows contributed to lower week-on-week pipeline imports; however, these flows have now started to recover. Libyan and Azeri gas deliveries have stabilized following recent increases. Regarding Ukraine, gas imports from Hungary continue to run high after flows from Poland and Slovakia dropped to zero. Looking ahead, we expect a slight increase in net pipeline imports into the EU next week, driven largely by the gradual recovery of Norwegian exports.

EU-27 weekly net pipeline gas imports (bcm)

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 05 and 12 March 2025.

EU-27 weekly net pipeline gas imports (bcm), y/y comparison

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 05 and 12 March 2025.

EU-27 LNG imports rose to 5.1 mcm last week (+48% w/w), with increases across all major buyers, particularly Spain and Belgium.

EU-27 weekly LNG imports (mcm)

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 05 and 12 March 2025.

On the demand side, weekly gas consumption from local distribution in 15 EU countries is estimated to have increased by 18.6% w/w to 3.16 bcm, marking the first w/w gains in four weeks. The increase was driven by colder-than-average temperatures in parts of Europe, especially in NW countries, where the week-on-week gains went above 40%.

Looking ahead, forecasts indicate that temperatures will remain above average levels until 24 March, likely reducing gas demand for heating during the first half of the week. Temperatures are expected to then go below seasonal levels at the back end of the week in most of NW Europe. Based on this, we expect gas demand for heating purposes decline week-on-week.

EU-15 weekly consumption in the local distribution (res/com) sector (bcm)

Source: ENTSOG, ENAGAS, Eurstream, AGCM, Kpler Insight. The EU-15 perimeter includes AT, BE, CZE, FR, HU, GRE, ITA, NL, LUX, POL, POR, ROM, SLVN, SLVK, and SPA.

Average forecast temperatures for selected European countries (°C)

Source: Kpler Power. As of 20 March 00:00 UTC.

On the power side, EU-27 gas-fired generation increased by 8% w/w to an estimated 6.44 TWh, driven by weak wind output and lower temperatures

Looking ahead, gas-fired generation is expected to decline, with wind generation improving in the coming days and temperatures forecast to remain above average until 24 March.

EU-27 weekly gas-fired generation (TWh)

Source: Kpler Power, Kpler Insight

As of 20 March, EU-27 underground storage levels stood at 34.3% full. The pace of withdrawals slowed down in NW Europe due to warmer temperatures and the gradual reduction of exports to Ukraine. Higher-than-average temperatures in the coming days should slow the pace of net withdrawal rates next week. However, with the latest weather forecasts placing temperatures in April below seasonal averages, net injections during the beginning of the restocking season could slow down.

EU-27 daily underground storage net withdrawals since 1 November (bcm)

Source: GIE, Kpler Insight. Latest date as of 18/03/25.

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Want the complete report?

The full report is available within Insight and contains:

• Asia: Bearish Fundamentals Balanced by Restocking Hopes and Steady TTF
• US: Henry Hub prices to remain near $4.00/MMBtu on cooler weather forecasts and supply disruptions
• LNG Supply: Qatar exports robust despite maintenance season, while Plaquemines feedgas hits fresh high
• Key indicators

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