Kpler natgas benchmark price outlook

European TTF front-month price outlook: Bearish

After hitting an eight-month high, Kpler Insight anticipates the TTF front-month contract to decline in the coming week as risks around the potential disruption of Russian flows into Ukraine at Sudzha and fears about an upcoming recession in the US start to dissipate. Robust Norwegian pipeline supply and above-average renewable output will help keep gas-fired power demand in check amid heatwaves in the continent. In the days ahead, the market will be closely monitoring the developments in Ukraine and the Middle East that pose significant upside risks to TTF prices.

Asian LNG front-month price outlook: Steady

Asian LNG prices are expected to remain steady again this week after prices edged up by $0.05/MMBtu over the past week to $12.54/MMBtu. The slight increase in prices was mainly driven by the unplanned supply outage at Malaysia’s Bintulu liquefaction plant. Despite the continued outage at Bintulu and heatwaves driving power demand in Northeast Asia on the prompt, these ongoing heatwaves are in line within buyer expectations and lower demand expectations for the shoulder months are anticipated to keep Asian spot LNG prices balanced for the week ahead.

US Henry Hub front-month price outlook: Steady

Henry Hub front-month futures prices are expected to remain steady again this week. High power demand continues in the middle of peak cooling season, but milder upcoming weather threatens to weaken demand. Producers continue to manage supply to support prices. Storage levels are still high and are a major drag on near-term prices.

Daily thermal fuel rolling front-month prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: Kpler calculations based on ICE and NYMEX

Price movement definitions

Steady – front-month prices move in a 20 cents/MMBtu upside/downside range.

Bearish – front-month prices decrease by more than 20 cents/MMBtu.

Bullish – front-month prices increase by more than 20 cents/MMBtu.

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