Gas prices expected to soften amidst the arrival of spring temperatures coupled with ample supply across Atlantic and Pacific Basins

Market & Trading Calls

European TTF price outlook: Bearish, as spring temperatures start easing pressure on storage withdrawal rates. Strong solar generation in Western Europe and strong LNG fundamentals will support this trend.

Asian LNG price outlook: Bearish, following downwards European TTF price expectations, underperforming Northeast Asia and Thai imports as well as ample Pacific supply.

Asian LNG – TTF spread: Stable, as both TTF and Asian LNG prices are projected to weaken. As of 26 March, Asian LNG regained its premium over TTF, trading $0.28/mmBtu higher. The spread reflects sharper week-on-week declines in TTF relative to Asian LNG, with both benchmarks projected to continue softening in the near term.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Bearish, as a warm April and the first reported net storage injection weight down on prices, despite record LNG feed gas demand and relatively weak production.  

Key natural gas and LNG prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, NYMEX, Spark Commodities. Brent-indexed price represents 12% slope of 90-day moving average of Brent contract. Netforward USGC to NWE calculation is 115% Henry Hub contract plus shipping and regasification costs into Gate (Spark Commodities).

Asian LNG-TTF spread ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, Kpler Insight

Europe: TTF expected to continue softening amid warmer weather and robust fundamentals

European TTF front-month prices fell last week, closing at $12.9/MMBtu on 26 March, down $0.92/MMBtu (-6.7%) from 19 March. It was a relatively uneventful week on the fundamentals side, with plentiful US and Qatari supply available while Nigerian volumes returned to seasonal levels. Strong onshore wind and solar generation across the EU kept gas demand in check, as did warmer weather as winter ends. Prices were steady until the recent ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea between Russia and Ukraine gave a positive signal to the market and pushed prices downwards. A draft published by the EU Council and Parliament on additional storage target flexibility also contributed to this. Lastly, the ban on Russian STS in EU ports came into force today (27 March).

The seasonal (winter 2025-26 - summer 2025) price spread closed at -$0.22/MMBtu, narrowing by $0.28/MMBtu since last week.

TTF summer and winter prices ($/MMbtu)

Source: Argus. Latest datapoint is 25/03/25

Kpler Insight expects TTF front-month prices to fall going forward. Plentiful pipeline and LNG supply, as well as the arrival of spring temperatures, will help to soften prices. Mild weather is forecast across much of Western Europe, thus pulling down gas demand for heating.

With the winter season coming to an end, storage dynamics appear to have shifted. For the first time this winter, two consecutive net injection days were recorded before returning to net withdrawals the following day. This sent a positive signal to the market as the withdrawal curve was flattening out. This was supported by a narrowing summer/winter spread, now at close to 1€/MMbtu, prompting players to store gas now rather than later.

The main bullish risk factors affecting prices for the week ahead are on the regasification infrastructure side, with the Alexandroupolis terminal still offline until the end of the month, amid concerns the outage could extend into April. Montoir and Fos Cavaou are scheduled to begin planned maintenance next week, though for only 1 and 3 days, respectively, and should not affect market sentiment too heavily.

On the upstream side, maintenance is scheduled at Norway’s Nyhamna processing facility from 2–7 April, which could temporarily curb pipeline exports to continental Europe if extended. In addition, the Hammerfest LNG export facility is now expected to be offline from 22 April to 19 July, nine days longer than previously planned.

Expanding on fundamentals, Norwegian gas flows to the EU via France returned to historic highs, with the NBP/PEG spread narrowing to ~0.5€/MWh.

EU-27 weekly net pipeline gas imports (bcm)

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 12 and 19 March 2025.

EU-27 weekly net pipeline gas imports (bcm), y/y comparison

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 12 and 19 March 2025.

On the LNG side, feedgas to US terminals reached an all-time high last Friday (16.2 bcf/d), and despite a minor hiccup at Freeport (which did not affect market sentiment) all terminals were fully operating, especially Plaquemines which is now exporting more LNG per week than Calcasieu Pass and Cove Point. US exports are forecasted to reach 2.18 mt for this week.

European LNG imports fell to 6.09 mcm last week (-10% week-on-week), with notable decreases in the NWE region and the UK.

EU-27 weekly LNG imports (mcm)

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 12 and 19 March 2025. NWE=FR, BEL, NL,GER. Iberia=ESP, POR. Med=ITA, HVR, GRE. Baltics/CEE=FI, LT, POL. Others=SWE, MT

On the 27th March, the EU ban on Russian LNG transshipments will come into force, however, this is not expected to have a significant impact on TTF prices, as the majority of transhipped and re-exported Russian LNG is sent to China, and does not concern EU terminals that are connected to the EU grid. If anything, it could potentially avoid some additional gas getting displaced to Asia and to remain in Europe instead. This topic was covered extensively in our April 2024 Spotlight report.

On the demand side, weekly gas consumption from local distribution in 15 EU countries is estimated to have declined by 18.6% week-on-week to 2.57 bcm, the lowest level recorded this year, signaling that the continent is leaving the winter season behind. Above-temperatures across NW Europe drove the decline, with the steepest weekly reductions observed in the Netherlands (46%), Belgium (43%), and France (37%).

Looking ahead, local distribution demand is expected to see a modest uptick next week due to a short-lived dip in temperatures across NW Europe.

EU-15 weekly consumption in the local distribution (res/com) sector (bcm)

Source: ENTSOG, ENAGAS, Eurstream, AGCM, Kpler Insight. The EU-15 perimeter includes AT, BE, CZE, FR, HU, GRE, ITA, NL, LUX, POL, POR, ROM, SLVN, SLVK, and SPA.

Average forecast temperatures for selected European countries (°C)

Source: Kpler Power. As of 27 March 00:00 UTC.

On the power side, EU-27 gas-fired generation declined by 18% week-on-week to an estimated 5.26 TWh, driven by strong wind and solar output and above-average temperatures during the first half of the week.

Looking ahead, strong renewable generation and a gradual increase in temperatures after the weekend are expected to limit gas-fired generation.

EU-27 weekly gas-fired generation (TWh)

Source: Kpler Power, Kpler Insight

As of 25 March, EU-27 underground storage levels stood at 33.7% full, the lowest level reached this winter, and close to Kpler Insight’s prediction of 33% for the end of March. The withdrawal curve has begun to flatten in recent days and is expected to continue doing so as the injection season approaches. By comparison, storage levels at the end of March last year stood significantly higher, at 58.5% full.

EU-27 daily underground storage net withdrawals since 1 November (bcm)

Source: GIE, Kpler Insight. Latest date as of 25/03/25.

‍

Want the complete report?

The full report is available within Insight and contains:

• Asia: Further downside looms for Asian LNG amid Weak TTF, tepid demand in Northeast Asia and Thailand
• US: Henry Hub to decrease on warmer weather forecasts and the onset of the storage injection season
• LNG Supply: Global exports trend higher, Freeport disruption contained, Algerian volumes hit multi-month High
• Key indicators

Stay ahead of the curve with up-to-the-minute news and forward-looking views on market-moving developments covering LNG, European natural gas and US natural gas markets. Get daily LNG reports and understand the interplay between natural gas, LNG, and coal including supply and demand fundamentals.

Unbiased. Data-driven. Essential.

Trade smarter. Request access to Kpler today.