Dangote: What to Expect in 2025

Representing one of the most significant supply additions in recent times in the Atlantic Basin, we take a few lines to show you how the 650 kbd Dangote refinery will go from processing 360 kbd of crude today, to 445 kbd by the end of the year.

Dangote crude intake (kbd)

Source: Kpler

The Past: Dangote’s Journey to Stability

The refinery has steadily ramped up operations since December 2023. On its path to reaching the current 360 kbd processing rate, Dangote has consistently exported naphtha, gasoil, and LSFO since March 2024, low-sulfur diesel since mid-2024, and gasoline (~91 RON, sulfur 20-40 ppm) since October 2024, following the stabilization of reformer and isomer units. It is important to note that this operational success has not come without challenges. Crude availability remains the primary constraint to further refinery output growth, posing a non-negligible risk to the current production outlook.

The Present: Dangote’s Current Operations

Dangote has already disrupted regional product markets, displacing imports from Europe and positioning itself as a strategic player in both regional and global trade.

Currently, the refinery operates at a steady 360 kbd following a brief shutdown of its gasoline-producing Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC) in late January. While operations continue to stabilize, RFCC runs remain limited due to the slower ramp-up rate and low-severity operation modes. These modes, which are typical during the startup phase and are influenced by the absence of a Polypropylene (PP) plant, are designed to optimize yields, providing a 3-5% increase in naphtha and gasoline output. With the PP plant's commissioning, Euro VI-grade gasoline production is imminent.  

Dangote product exports (incl. Nigeria, kbd)

Source: Kpler

The Future: What to Expect in 2025

By Q4 2025, utilization is expected to reach 65%, with Euro VI-grade gasoline production beginning in Q2. However, achieving these targets hinges on crude and feedstock availability. Cargo-tracking data confirms the refinery’s first crude imports from Angola and Cameroon—marking a strategic move toward feedstock diversification. Previously reliant on Nigerian and US crude, Dangote is now securing alternative African suppliers to stabilize procurement amid fluctuating domestic output. This shift not only strengthens operational resilience but also fosters deeper regional market integration.

The refinery’s priority remains increasing gasoline yield. At full capacity, gasoline is expected to account for 294 kbd (45%) of its 650 kbd potential. Current yields stand at 32-35%, leaving significant room for growth. This expansion will disrupt global trade flows, pressuring Europe-to-West Africa gasoline flows. Dangote’s evolution continues to reshape Atlantic Basin supply dynamics, reinforcing its role as a key player in regional and global refined products markets.

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