Iron ore majors tracking: Can top miners weather the tariff storm in the remainder of 2025?

Outlook – Iron ore trade will be more resilient than steel demand despite global trade tensions

Recent global trade tensions have precipitated sharp declines in iron ore prices. However, as domestic production in China is typically among the hardest hits during price downturns, we expect global iron ore trade to display greater resilience than the steel sector – echoing trends observed during 2008–2010 and 2014–2016.

Global crude steel production and iron ore exports (Mt)

Source: World Steel Association, UN Comtrade, Kpler Insight

In an environment of economic and trade uncertainty, major miners in Australia and Brazil are likely to weather the storm better than smaller competitors thanks to their significant cost advantages. While lower iron ore prices may compress margins in the short term, the resultant exit of weaker players could ultimately bolster the market share and profitability of the majors in the next economic cycle.

Accordingly, apart from those severely impacted by early 2025 weather disruptions, we do not anticipate any downward revisions to the guidance for 2025 or FY2026 by the major iron ore miners. However, delays in new projects or the expansion of existing ones could materialise if prices fall below $90/t.

Rio Tinto – Will the miner cut its 2025 guidance as Q1 shipments hit a decade low？

Rio Tinto exported 69.91 Mt of iron ore from Western Australia in the first quarter of 2025, a 6.75% decline y/y and its steepest since 2021. The miner was among the most severely affected by cyclone disruption in the Pilbara region.

According to our modelling based on the shipping data, Rio Tinto is expected to officially report 71 Mt of Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) in its 2025 First Quarter Operations Review, due on 15 April. If realised, this would mark its weakest quarterly export performance since 2015.

Following the resumption of the East Intercourse Island facility at Dampier Port, Rio Tinto’s exports from Western Australia hit a March high of 30.15 Mt – surpassing expectations and narrowing the likelihood of a downward revision to its full-year guidance of 323–338 Mt. In our view, the lower end of that range remains achievable. Around 3 Mt of the estimated 13 Mt of weather-related losses in January and February have already been clawed back through a strong March performance. Even so, it is uncertain whether Rio can bridge the remaining gap over the remainder of the year. We estimate there is still a 50% chance of a downward revision to guidance.

Vale – Exports dropped over 4% y/y against the high base in early 2024

Vale’s iron ore exports from Brazil totalled 55.40 Mt in the first three months of 2025, a 4.17% y/y decline compared to the strong performance in the first quarter of 2024 when unseasonably drier weather drove shipments to a multi-year March quarter high in 2024, when unseasonably dry weather facilitated a multi-year high for first quarter shipments. Meanwhile, a five-day blockade of the miner’s Carajas railway in March this year affected exports from Ponta da Madeira.

We forecast that Vale will officially report around 67 Mt of iron ore production in its 1Q25 Production and Sales Report, due to be published on 15 April.

In February, Vale announced a $12.26bn investment plan to boost its Carajas iron ore production to 200 Mt in 2030, up from 177.50 Mt in 2024. This is in line with its long-term expansion plan to increase output to 360 Mt by 2030, up from 327.65 Mt in 2024.

BHP – FY2025 production to sit at the lower half of annual guidance

At 66.75 Mt, BHP’s March quarter iron ore exports from Western Australia fell by 4.53% y/y, the steepest y/y decline in six years, and coming despite the miner enduring less severe impacts from the recent cyclone season compared to many of its Pilbara peers.

We project that BHP will officially report around 66 Mt of quarterly iron ore production (WAIO 100% basis) in the Operational Review for the third quarter of its FY 2025, due for release on 17 April. Combined with the 144.70 Mt produced during the first half of FY2025, this would yield an output of approximately 210.70 Mt for the first nine months of the current fiscal year. This leaves a residual target of 71.30–83.30 Mt to meet its annual guidance of between 282 and 294 Mt. We anticipate that June quarter production will slightly exceed the five-year average of 73.92 Mt, positioning full-year production towards the lower half of guidance.

FMG – Reaching the midpoint of the FY2025 annual target?

FMG exported 44.75 Mt of iron ore from Western Australia in the initial three months of 2025, expanding by 5.29% y/y against the low base in the March quarter of 2024, when a rail derailment accident and weather-related disruptions forced quarterly shipments down to a three-year low of 42.50 Mt.

Our model indicates that FMG will officially report 45.80 Mt of quarterly iron ore shipments (100% basis) in its March 2025 Quarterly Production Report, due for publication on 29 April. This would bring cumulative shipments for the first three fiscal quarters of FY2025 to 142.90 Mt, leaving an outstanding requirement of 47.10–57.10 Mt to hit the annual target of 190–200 Mt. While we are confident that the lower end of the range is within reach, meeting the midpoint target will depend on recapturing the momentum seen in June of the previous year, when shipments reached an unprecedented 53.70 Mt.

The “Big Four” share of the global seaborne market dropped sharply in 1Q25 as some were hit by weather disruptions

Source: Kpler

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