Price spikes expected in European power markets in the next 3 days

What are the countries mostly affected and what are the first trends we can observe from the incoming mini-dunkelflaute?

The next three days promise a price spike rollercoaster, driven largely by low wind levels and market tightness.

Here’s the first twist: tomorrow, France, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, and Poland are stepping off the ride, while Czechia gets caught in the market coupling pincer, exporting and redistributing social welfare across the region. Let’s break down some of the key players:

• France decouples bolstered by Spanish export support and nearly 50 GW of available nuclear power, the highest levels seen since mid-January. Another sign that the French nuclear fleet has fully recovered from the 2022 pipe corrosion problems.
  
• Germany faces the harshest impact from low wind levels. As a heavily reliant power importer, its role amplifies market tightness across Europe. In response, the country could run its fossil fuel generation at full throttle, with coal and gas  a combined reaching 30 GW, while demand. Germany will pay any price to secure export flows.
  
• Poland leans on its robust fossil generation fleet, with the Jaworzno 2 and Kozienice 2 coal units coming online tomorrow, adding an extra 2 GW of capacity. During periods of market tightness, Poland has consistently managed to meet 80% of its demand using 15 GW of coal and 3 GW of gas-to-power reserves.
  
• Czechia, however, takes the hit: despite its ability to meet domestic demand with 9-10 GW of national production (3 GW from nuclear, 4 GW from coal, and 1 GW from gas), tightness in neighboring markets results in significant export inertia. This forces Czechia to redistribute its social welfare among its neighbours and putting pressure on its national prices, much like the situation currently unfolding in Bulgaria.
  
• Italy maintains its traditional coupling with France and Switzerland. Recently, the peninsula has been importing an average of around 7 GW from these two countries. Switzerland, in particular, is likely to leverage its hydro resources, importing cheaper energy from France and exporting it eastward at higher prices. Interestingly, while hydro levels across Europe have reached record highs this year, Switzerland's reserves are currently 1 GWh below the 5-year average, approaching their lowest levels in half a decade.
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