Power futures: the Franco-German calendar product 2026 spread hits record gap

Will Germany’s weather-dependent grid and reliance on gas lead to long-term instability?

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French power futures for 2026 are now about 40% cheaper than their German counterparts, based on data from the EEX power exchange. This unprecedented discount highlights the flexibility of France’s power mix and its robust export position, in contrast to Germany’s continued dependence on gas and imports.

On January 30th, the spread between the two contracts reached a striking 27.50 €/MWh. But how did this price decoupling come to be? What factors fueled it, and what does it mean for the months ahead?

When did the price decoupling start?

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The spread between French and German calendar power prices for 2026 took root in late March 2024.

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How did this happen?

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Spring cranks up the renewable energy blender, mixing up an unpredictable storm of intermittent power. Solar power ramps up significantly, while strong winds sustain their high winter outputs. As a result, this context marked the first major price decoupling events in the day-ahead market between the two countries.

On one side, France saw early snowmelts replenishing its hydro reserves, benefiting from higher-than-average temperatures. Meanwhile, its nuclear fleet registered record modulation activities, with ramp downs reaching up to 15 GW, particularly notable during the April 6-7 weekend. This was a clear signal that the nuclear sector had fully recovered from the 2022 maintenance crisis, enabling France to manage power flows more efficiently.

Germany, on the other hand, found itself at the mercy of meteorological fluctuations. When the sun was shining and the wind was blowing, renewables powered up to 80% of the grid. As a consequence, every three days Germany recorded an hour of negative residual demand in April. Not only, with sunset reducing solar output, German evenings turned to fossil fuels power needs, with gas and coal plants raising up bids to account for premiums, startup costs, and recover from negative pricing. This left Germany exposed to the volatile TTF gas market, where price swings in 2024 were 50% above historical averages.

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The graph clearly shows a strong correlation between German and TTF 2026 calendar product prices, whereas French prices exhibit no correlation.

Curiously, both France and Germany recorded similar levels of negative pricing hours, but the key difference was France’s ability to shield itself from evening price spikes and extreme negative values.

What do we expect in the coming months?

While the energy transition promises long-term cost reductions, the intermittency of solar and wind continues to drive short-term price volatility, and the market understood this. France has mitigated this issue via a flexible nuclear comeback, whereas Germany, after shutting down its last nuclear plant in 2023, remains reliant on gas and coal for evening demand.

It’s no surprise, then, that Germany is experiencing a surge in Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects. A staggering 161 GW worth of interconnection requests for energy storage have been submitted to German TSOs. The country’s main challenge will be to balance its energy mix with storage solutions. Given their geography, the country seeks alternatives to hydro storage, an advantage France enjoys thanks to the Alps and the Pyrenees. As such, batteries and, potentially, a reconsideration of nuclear energy are on the table. Perhaps, Germany could find value in looking to his French neighbor for inspiration or potential collaboration in shaping a nuclear comeback.

For now, however, the contrast remains stark: Germany’s 2026 calendar product has climbed to 95.53 €/MWh as of January 30, 2025, while France’s equivalent contract stays below the 70 €/MWh threshold. In the short term, unless drastic changes occur (such as splitting Germany into two bidding zones) we will have to wait for the storage effect to kick in. Renewables capacity will continue to expand, exacerbating the market dynamics witnessed over the past year.

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