New Refineries Status

Dangote

• The refinery, which has been producing naphtha, gasoil, jet fuel, ultra-low sulphur diesel, and fuel oil (LSFO), has recently begun gasoline production with the commissioning of its reformer and isomerization unit.
• Dangote Refinery's crude import and inventory data indicate that they are struggling with crude intake. As per Kpler supply model, they are operating their CDU at only 40% capacity due to insufficient crude oil supply and with a high reflux rate in the distillation column, which is not sustainable in the long term.

• In terms of operational capacity, Dangote has made progress with the commissioning of the Reformer block, Isomerization unit, Mild Hydrocracker unit, and Hydrogen generation unit.
 
• The highly anticipated RFCC unit, essential for high volume gasoline production, has been commissioned, and its stabilisation process is currently in progress. Once fully operational, this will significantly boost gasoline output and enhance fuel quality at the refinery. This is further reflected by the absence of LSFO exports in September.
• Dangote began supplying gasoline domestically on September 15, but there have been no updates regarding gasoline exports (Euro VI) yet. At an estimated 50% utilisation rate, the refinery's catalytic reformer is expected to produce around 45 kbd of reformate. By blending light naphtha (straight run) and isomerate (light and heavy) streams from the isomerization unit, along with initial output ( from the RFCC, total gasoline production could potentially reach up to 80 kbd in October. However, achieving higher yields and production volumes will depend on the stabilisation of the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC), expected by late 2024.
• The challenge isn’t in the secondary units, where Dangote has proven operational success with earlier than expected startup of critical secondary units (RFCC, Hydrocracker), but in securing stable crude runs. Crude arrivals are expected in October, which may lead to increased CDU utilisation (around 50%).


‍Nigeria Crude Runs (Mbd)

Source: JODI & Kpler

*Figures beyond M1 are our forecasts

Dangote Refinery Exports (Clean Products, DPP) (kbd)

Source: Kpler
* Data till 26th September

Yulong

• China's Yulong refinery began trial operations at one of its 200 kbd crude distillation units in the first week of September, expected to last for a few months, according to sources. The refinery’s start-up had been delayed from June of this year.

• The new plant is expected to operate at about 50-60% of capacity during the trial phase.

• Phase I of the Yulong project includes two CDUs with a capacity of 400 kbd, two ethylene units with a capacity of 1.5 million metric tons (MMt) per year, and one styrene unit with a capacity of 500,000 tons (t) per year.
  

Latest Update (25th Sep): China's Yulong Begins Trial Operations at CDU and Related Units


• Yulong Petrochemical, with a capacity of 400 kbd, has initiated trial operations at one of its 200 kbd Crude Distillation Units (CDU) and associated secondary units this week. Crude was first introduced to the unit at the end of August.
• The initial feed of crude, primarily Omani and Sokol, was introduced for testing at the end of August. Throughput has gradually increased since and is currently standing at approximately 50-60%.
• Yulong has secured at least four Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) of crude from the Middle East, including Oman and Upper Zakum, as well as several Russian ESPO cargoes. These feedstocks are expected to arrive between October and December.

• The refinery has commenced gasoil production achieving a pour point of -35 degrees Celsius., although it remains unconfirmed whether the output meets sulphur specification as sources indicate that a secondary unit has started operations.

• Gasoline production is anticipated to begin in October, with the Continuous Catalytic Regeneration (CCR) and Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) units expected to commence operations next month.

Dos Bocas

• Pemex reports the refinery started processing crude in July at 65 kbd and processed 85 kbd (minimum  capacity for smooth operation)  in August and the same is expected in Sep if we see export data, producing only diesel and pet coke. 
• Flaring resumed at Dos Bocas on August 5-6 after a three-month hiatus, suggesting primary runs are back on track. While the impact on crude exports has been minimal, the environment for Olmeca's operations remains unusual.

• Diesel imports remained stable despite the refinery's startup, with Mexico importing 155 kbd in August and 196 kbd in September—consistent with the previous month and in line with the 2024 average.
• Our analysis suggests this is likely early testing rather than a full ramp-up, as no reports of other products (Naphtha, Jet) have emerged. The first train (170 kbd) is expected to scale up by Q4 2024, significantly affecting middle distillates like jet fuel and gas oil, similarly to how the Dangote refinery ramp-up progressed. Kpler forecasts gas oil production at Dos Bocas refinery could reach 50 kbd by Q4 2024, depending on crude throughput.

• Pemex hit a key milestone this month, exporting its first fuel cargo from the new Olmeca refinery to India. On September 11, it shipped 31,000 tonnes of petroleum coke, signalling progress.Though promising, the lack of jet fuel and naphtha suggests the refinery is still fine-tuning its units, with some units seems to be not yet fully synced and configured. However, Pemex is ramping up crude processing and coker unit operation as it pushes to stabilise and scale operations.

  

Mexico Crude Runs (Mbd)

Source: JODI, Pemex & Kpler
*Figures beyond M1 are our forecasts

Mexico Crude Exports and Gasoil Imports (kbd)

Source: Kpler

Middle East

Jizan

• Saudi Aramco's Jizan Refinery Complex is operating at around 75% capacity i.e., around 300 kbd and is struggling to ramp up rates due to a hydrogen shortage. However, the refinery has increased its processing rates at secondary units, as indicated by a decrease in VGO exports.


Al-Zour

• Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery is currently operating at about 70% of its designed capacity, roughly 430 kbd, and is exporting around 350 kbd (total product exports) of naphtha, jet fuel, diesel, and fuel oil Maintenance activities, and suspected issue at Sulphur block and heavy crude processing are key factors affecting its operational capacity.

Duqm

• OQ8 continues to operate at around 90% of the 230,000 b/d production capacity at the Duqm refinery as indicated by products exports. The refinery is expected to increase output by another 5%-10% over the coming months and is considering an upgrade of its naphtha output for use in gasoline production. Duqm started test runs at its primary CDU in April 2023. 
• However, as Duqm  refinery has ramped up, other refineries in Oman have scaled down run rates. 

Oman Crude Runs (Mbd)

Source: Kpler, Figures beyond M1 are our forecasts

*Figures beyond M1 are our forecasts

BAPCO

• The expansion of Bahrain's BAPCO refinery is progressing, with construction in the final phase. All equipment has been delivered, and construction is expected to be completed by Q1 2025.
• Pre-commissioning activities are anticipated in the early second quarter of 2025, with the refinery expected to begin commissioning its newest crude unit in the third quarter of 2025.

• Once the BAPCO upgrade is completed, the refinery will focus on producing middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel, while its fuel oil output will decrease significantly (fuel oil will be upgraded to distillates  in the RHCU). The residual hydrocracking unit, with a capacity of 60 kbd, will convert 75-80% of feedstocks into distillates, which will be further processed into kerosene and diesel. Post-upgrade, crude processing capacity will increase to 406 kbd from the current level of 267 kbd. A second hydrocracker is being built as part of the upgrade plan, with a VGO processing capacity of 56 kbd.

East Asia

Balikpapan

• Indonesia's Balikpapan Refinery Development Master Plan (RDMP) — under which the refinery's CDU capacity has already increased from 260 kbd to 360 kbd and includes the construction of an RFCC (90 kbd), alkylation unit (2 kbd), and reformer (20 kbd) — is set to be completed by September next year (2025). 

Thai Oil

• Thailand’s Thai Oil Clean Fuel Project (CFP) at Sriracha Refinery is expected to be delayed, with completion of the upgrade work anticipated by Q1 next year, followed by pre-commissioning and startup in Q2 2025. 
• The CFP will help Thai Oil transition from producing low-value products to higher-value, more environmentally friendly products (Euro V / VI grades). It will also expand refinery crude oil processing capabilities (high API – Heavy sour / sweet crude). 
• The clean fuel project enables Thai Oil to shift towards high-value, eco-friendly products (Euro V) and the project will boost crude oil refining capacity from 275 kbd to 400 kbd, featuring new processing units for heavy crude, including a crude distillation unit (CDU), high vacuum distillation unit (VDU), hydrocracking unit, vacuum residue hydrocracking unit (VRHU) and other secondary units. 
• The project will replace two existing CDUs with a new 220 kbd CDU and discontinue several units, including a fluidized catalytic cracking unit and visbreaker unit.
• The Nelson Index of the refinery is expected to increase from 9.8 to 12 after the Clean Fuel Project completion.
• Thai Oil initiated the commissioning of the hydrodesulfurization unit (HDS-4) in February, ahead of schedule.

Yield Comparison 

Distillate Yield expected to increase significantly post CFP completion

  Source: Kpler

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