Monitoring the grains market with Kpler data

Kpler is well known for a wide variety of commodity market intelligence, but one of its newer additions is in the Grains & Oilseeds space. 

In this blog we will take a look at three recent examples of important trends in grains markets into which Kpler provides crucial real-time insight to help professionals navigate the market.

Over the summer, in June and July, consolidation in the industry and an informal ‘floor price’ had forced Russian traders to sell at a discount if they wanted to sell into Egypt, as Egypt also began to source from other competitive origins. In June, Russian traders did yield and sell at a significant discount in order to get their cargo moving, some suggest also that this was in order to make way for the new crop in Russia as storage began to fill with traders unwilling to sell at this artificial discount. 

The cargo associated with these GASC (General Authority for Supply Commodities) tenders can be watched in real-time through Kpler’s platform. In fact, when looking into the flows from Russia to Egypt for Wheat this summer, Kpler can identify several notable trends. 

First, when looking at Kpler’s historical data, the year-over-year and even 5+ year July trend - this current July import figure from Russia at an expected 597kt is the largest observed for July in Kpler’s data. 

When looking into more recent data, we can also note that this year has been the largest in regard to Russian wheat flows to Egypt, but in July there has been a significant drop from from 916kt in June to 597kt in July, and we can also see that Egypt is sourcing from other countries and it’s overall volumes are at 1,023kt - larger than in previous years for the month of July. With Kpler we can also follow the individual voyages and trades at the vessel level for comprehensive insight - especially when customers may combine this data with market information that they have on their end. 

In a recent tender, Egypt’s GASC has purchased 770kt of wheat in its largest purchase so far for 2024/2025. The seller for the vast majority of this wheat is Russia, with Bulgaria providing roughly 50kt. While this recent tender bodes well for Russian traders, when looking at overall Russian wheat export volumes for this July, they are trending below expectations which will likely put downward pressure on prices.

Another trend in the agricultural space to watch is the recent record import levels of soybean for China. The nearly 14,000kt of soybean is a record for any month of imports to China. The soybeans are mostly coming from Brazil, delivering 11,747 kt - a massive number representing nearly a ~2,000kt jump from the previous month.

As the U.S. political situation continues to develop, even with the recent events on the Democratic side of the ticket, Trump is still favored to win by most pollsters. Though a lot can change between now and the election, a Republican administration would likely resume trade tariffs and in particular soybean trade to China can come under scrutiny as it did in the last Trump administration.

This massive influx this month to China from Brazil is seen as an anticipatory move given the potential issues ahead, so that China can move away from imports of US soybeans. This trend appears to potentially continue, with 8,231kt of soybean from Brazil slated to arrive in August in China - with potentially more to come.

In corn, Brazil has also exported 1mt in June but with the Safrinha crop harvest ending soon their exports will shoot up dramatically, which occurs during this time in the season as expressed in the data below from Kpler.

The demand for Brazilian corn can also be monitored through Kpler’s data. Last year’s Q3 exports were driven by strong Chinese demand, this Q3 looks to be more paced out. That is because ports at Brazil are still loading soybean to also deliver to China. How this situation plays out within these interconnected markets is something for market professionals to continue to monitor and can gain great insight with Kpler.