European TTF front-month price outlook: Steady

Kpler Insight sees TTF front-month contract trading rangebound in the coming week. Light disruptions in Norway, high storage levels, and strong renewable output will keep the market balanced as higher power needs for cooling increase in Europe to cope with warm temperatures. However, upside risks remain around the comeback of Montoir’s LNG send-out and the ongoing maintenance works at the Dunkirk exit terminal.

Asian LNG front-month price outlook: Bearish

Asian LNG prices are expected to lose some value this week after rising $0.15/MMBtu over the past week. Despite hot weather driving power demand in some parts of northeast Asia, the return of loadings at the US’ Freeport LNG, high stocks at Japanese power utilities, and weak demand in China is expected to keep Asian spot buying muted.

US Henry Hub front-month price outlook: Steady

Henry Hub front-month futures prices are expected to remain steady in the upcoming week.  Power demand expectations remain high even with a moderate weather forecast for the end of July.  LNG feedgas volumes have rebounded significantly after Hurricane Beryl related disruptions.  Storage balances tighten further as producers continue to curtail production.

Daily thermal fuel rolling front-month prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: Kpler calculations based on ICE and NYMEX

Price movement definitions

Steady – front-month prices move in a 20 cents/MMBtu upside/downside range

Bearish – front-month prices decrease by more than 20 cents/MMBtu

Bullish – front-month prices increase by more than 20 cents/MMBtu

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