Evaluating the impact of events in the coal market with Kpler’s data

Kpler allows customers to have a real-time view into events that affect markets around the world, offering transparency into how markets are affected. 

In this blog we look into recent disruptions into Australian coal supply and how Kpler highlights the effects of these disruptions. 

This past June, Australian metallurgical coal exports followed a typical pattern of rising to a 12 month high of 15.08 Mt as miners boost shipments at the end of their quarter or fiscal year amid favourable weather conditions.

However, there have been several accidents in late June which have dampened the export expectations for July. First, on 29 June there was a fire at the Grosvenor mine, which represents Anglo-American’s largest metallurgical coal project, halted its production. On 4 July the company declared force majeure on deliveries for its buyers. This also led to a surge in prices as the mine represented a second half target of 1.2 Mt, which now appears to be in jeopardy as the mine may potentially be unable to resume into the third and fourth quarter of the year. With Kpler, customers are able to monitor several important factors associated with this event to understand how the market is reacting as it unfolds. 

Customers are able to evaluate the effect on shipments themselves by viewing congestion data for Queensland, and look into granular details such as the breakdown by specific installations, such as Hay Point, and evaluate the waiting times of each vessel in order to analyze an important element of the freight market and position themselves accordingly.

Customers are able to narrow their analysis of real time shipments to Anglo American itself and keep tabs on developments both with their potential customers, but also with the interconnected elements of the market in evaluating how other sellers are reacting. Currently, Kpler shows that exports are expected to rise, including the year-on-year trend. This is a trend that customers will want to continue to pay attention to as the market develops. For example, using Kpler one can see that several of the vessels currently slated for a voyage in July do not have a destination yet declared. 

With Kpler, customers can jump straight from the cargo analytics into the individual vessels to take a deeper look. They can see the playback and here we can view that the vessel the Jal Kamadhenu has been circling near shore.

While we can also see the other undeclared vessel, the Shandong De Feng, has actually picked up a second voyage according to Kpler fixture data for August - yet does not currently have a destination for its loaded cargo.

Additional disruptions occurred in late June a day before the fire at Grosvenor when a vehicle collision accident partially halted the Blackwater railway system that connects thermal and metallurgical coal mines in the Bowen Basin to the Port of Gladstone. Kpler data shows that about two thirds of exports from Gladstone are metallurgical coal.

Kpler also allows its customers to combine data in order to get precisely the analysis that they need. Here, we can see that given the majority of exports from Gladstone are met coal, that vessels waiting to load met coal reached a four week at the end of June and has remained elevated into July so far.

This is likely to have an impact on total met coal exports from Australia for this year, and could signal potential revisions for market expectations.

These developments offer just a glimpse of the type of granular, real time insight into commodity markets that Kpler offers. Thousands of professionals trust Kpler for important information in order to navigate the changes and stay ahead of competition. 

Kpler also offers customers expert, unbiased research from a large team of analysts. As a Kpler Insight customer, you receive daily updates for implications like the fire at the Grosvenor mine, weekly reports on supply and demand dynamics, in addition to monthly reports that contain deep dives along with price and balance forecasts. 

Give us a shout today to learn more about what Kpler can offer your organization.