The US tariff landscape for aluminum, steel, and copper

Following President Trump's April 2 tariff announcement, the US tariff landscape for aluminum and steel imports remains largely unchanged due to exemptions and waiver extensions. However, potential tariffs on copper imports are under consideration, pending the outcome of ongoing investigations.​

Following President Trump's sweeping tariff announcements in Q1 and especially on April 2, the US tariff landscape for aluminum, steel, and copper involves several legal frameworks:​

• Section 232 Tariffs: address national security issues and were imposed on US aluminum and steel imports on March 12.
• International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Tariffs: Relate to unusual threats to the US originating outside the country. In the case of IEEPA tariffs on Canada and Mexico they address fentanyl and migration issues and were imposed on March 4. These IEEPA tariffs distinguish between goods that comply with the USMCA or not. Only three days later, on March 7, an IEEPA waiver for USMCA-compliant goods was introduced until April 2. Most imports of Canadian and Mexican aluminum, steel, and copper meet the USMCA Rules of Origin and were exempted. Yesterday, this waiver was extended indefinitely.
• Reciprocal Tariffs: Announced on April 2 under the IEEPA, these tariffs target imports from individual countries with significant trade imbalances, such as a 34% tariff on China, on top of the existing Section 301 tariff. Notably, goods that are already subject to Section 232 tariffs, and those “that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs” (White House Fact Sheet, April 2) are exempt from these reciprocal tariffs.
• Section 301 Tariffs: Address unfair trade practices and are only implemented against China (10% since February 4 and 20% since March 4) as of April 3.

• Steel

US imports of steel face a 25% tariff based on Section 232 since March 12. At the same time, the 25% IEEPA tariff on steel imports from Canada and Mexico (combined import share of 39%, see chart) is waived on imports that are USMCA-compliant. Additionally, reciprocal tariffs imposed on some of the US’ largest providers of steel, such as Brazil, do not apply as steel already faces a Section 232 tariff. At 13%, the US steel import dependence is comparatively moderate (Kpler calculations based on US Geological Survey 2024). For now, most US steel imports will continue to be subject to 25% tariffs. For additional insights into market implications, please see here and complementary information here.

Largest steel suppliers to the US in 2024

Source: Kpler calculations based on US Geological Survey 2024

• Aluminum

The Section 232 tariff on aluminum lifted the existing 10% one (imposed by Trump in March 2018) to 25%, also effective March 12. Notably, this terminated previous exemptions to the 10% tariff for major US suppliers, including Canada, Australia, Brazil, and the EU. Similar to steel, most US imports from Canada and Mexico fulfill USMCA rules and do not face IEEPA tariffs after the waiver was extended indefinitely on April 2. The volumes affected by this waiver extension are significant. The US imports over half of its aluminum needs, and 55% of these flows originated from Canada and 2% from Mexico last year. As is the case with steel, reciprocal tariffs do not apply either, and overall, the current 25% tariff on most aluminum imports is set to remain in place. For a deep dive into market implications, please see here.

Largest aluminum suppliers to the US in 2024

Source: Kpler calculations based on US Geological Survey 2024

• Copper

Section 232 tariffs on copper have been under investigation since February 25. While there is a 270-day deadline, US copper prices rallied in expectation of a much earlier implementation. While copper was spared from specific tariffs on April 2, the Section 232 investigation is still ongoing. Given that the White House Fact Sheet specifically mentions that “all articles that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs” are exempted from reciprocal tariffs, while also specifically mentioning copper (alongside lumber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors), indicates that Section 232 tariffs for copper remain a clear possibility in Q2. Overall, potential tariffs on US copper imports would possibly be capped at 25%, in line with most steel and aluminum inflows. Nevertheless, such tariffs could drive US copper prices higher again due to an elevated US import reliance of 45%.

Largest copper suppliers to the US in 2024

Source: Kpler calculations based on US Geological Survey 2024

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