Kpler natgas benchmark price outlook

European TTF front-month price outlook: Bearish

Kpler Insight expects European TTF prices to lose value in the next week, after the contract topped its highest level since 1 December 2023 due to uncertainties surrounding Russian pipeline gas flow following Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Kpler Insight does not expect Russian pipeline gas flow to be halted. Meanwhile temperatures are expected to fall next week which could result in aggregated EU-27 gas storages hitting the mandated 90% full storage target ahead of the 1 November target.

Asian LNG front-month price outlook: Steady

Asian LNG prices are expected to remain steady this week after prices edged up by $0.19/MMBtu over the past week to $12.72/MMBtu. The increase in price was mainly driven by the European TTF price increasing due to geopolitical tensions. Even with some supply outages at Bintulu and Ichthys,  and unplanned nuclear outages in South Korea, lower demand expectations for the shoulder months are anticipated to keep Asian spot LNG prices balanced for the week ahead.

US Henry Hub front-month price outlook: Steady

Henry Hub front-month futures prices are expected to remain steady this week.  Storage inventories have continued to tighten as supply remains constricted by producers.  However, upcoming injections may be more in line with historical volumes as mild weather leads to lower power demand.

Daily thermal fuel rolling front-month prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: Kpler calculations based on ICE and NYMEX

Price movement definitions

Steady – front-month prices move in a 20 cents/MMBtu upside/downside range

Bearish – front-month prices decrease by more than 20 cents/MMBtu

Bullish – front-month prices increase by more than 20 cents/MMBtu

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